The rise of drone technology: What is means for aviation. Part 1 - Military use

Drones are becoming an increasingly important part in the world of aviation, from private recreational drones to large military drones, and even talk of delivery drones and flying taxis. In the next few blog posts, I will look at how drones are already changing the world around us and how they could change in the future.

This is the first of a two parts mini-series on drones. In this blog post I will look at drones, with a focus on the military side. Check out our next blog post about drones from a civilian and commercial viewpoint.

What are drones?

Drones come in all shapes and sizes but can be defined as aerial robots that carry visual, sensory, navigation systems and sometimes weapons. Other names for drones include ‘unmanned aerial vehicle’ while the United States Air Force calls it ‘remotely piloted aircraft’. Drones bring a new chapter in aviation history. Drones are replacing manned planes and revolutionising warfare, allowing people to see and kill from half a world away. This was seen by the fact that drones were used extensively by the United States in the War on Terror. We are in the early stages of realising what the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles are.

History of drones/previous examples

Drones have come a long way from where they started. As early as World War Two, at altitude, airplanes could be controlled by radio signals after the pilot bailed out. However, before GPS, drones were limited by primitive autopilots and navigation systems.

After the Second World War, engineers built ultra-sophisticated spy planes that went faster and higher than ever before. An example of this is the SR-71 Blackbird. The SR-71 could go over Mach 3 and the maximum recorded altitude was 85,200 feet but it could probably fly higher. The SR-71 was made from titanium, built during the height of the Cold War. The aircraft could take photos of the ground with 12-inch resolution from 90,000 feet. The aircraft could fly faster than a rifle bullet and missiles were too slow to catch it. The aircraft needed to be refuelled every 2 hours. The U-2 spy plane is a slower alternative to the SR-71 and it is still used today. However, pilot endurance limits flight time to 12 hours. As made apparent by the U-2, manned spy planes are limited by human endurance and bring risks of pilot loss. In 1960, a U-2 was shot down while flying over the Soviet Union which demonstrated the need for unmanned spy planes.

For more details about the SR-71, check out my recent blog post, on the SR-71 Blackbird:

https://www.avgeekblog.co.uk/post/the-sr-71-blackbird

In the 1960s and 70s, drones crashed constantly including the some of the most advanced for the time, which reportedly crashed every 20 hours. Drones are now a lot more advanced and sophisticated than that.

Why use drones? / Benefit of drones

Using a drone over a manned aircraft has many benefits. Some of these benefits include:

Drones can operate longer missions than manned fighter jets. Fighter jets can fly about 2 hours without refuelling while a Predator drone can stay in the air for over 24 hours. Additionally, using a drone doesn’t put a pilot in harm’s way. A remotely piloted aircraft is lighter and simpler than a manned plane as there is no pilot to protect. Drones are used to support troops on the ground. Drones can strike with pinpoint accuracy, and they allow countries, particularly the United States to strike anyone, anywhere, with ease regardless of national boundaries.

Manned planes are currently being replaced by drones. Drones are beneficial as there is no restriction on flight time due to pilots and they can be cheaper to manufacture and operate. The US Air Force predicts that nearly a third of its attack and fighter planes will be drones within a decade.

In October 2001, an armed Predator drone changed warfare forever. A weapon of the HQ-1 Predator was used for the first time in Afghanistan. Since then, drones have proved so effective that the US Air Force is training more remote pilots than manned fighter and bomber pilots combined. Training appears to be relatively simpler than learning how to fly a jet as remote pilots learn to fly automated drones in less than one year. In 2012, the United States carried out hundreds of drone-strikes across 4 countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen). Drones have been used to kill terrorists. In fact, drones were used to eliminate up to 70% of al Qaeda’s top leadership

Where drones are currently used

Drones are increasingly used domestically for more serious purposes such as border patrol services to track illegal migrants with Predator drones and police departments use smaller drones for reconnaissance. The Pentagon relies upon a family of more than 10,000 drones – usually to spy but sometimes to kill. In 2011-2013 US marines operated unmanned K-max helicopters in Afghanistan. These experimental drones conducted more than 1,000 sorties. They were used for resupplying marine units in remote areas and keeping them safe from ambushes and IEDs.

What type of drones are currently in use?

The United States operates a wide range of drones. These include:

• The Switchblade. This drone launches out of a tube then the wings, propellor and tail spring open. The drone detonates an explosive charge upon impact.

• The X-47B. This is the world’s first tailless fighter sized drone. It can take off and land on an aircraft carrier.

• The ‘Raven’. This is a 3-foot-long drone, small enough to fit in a soldier’s backpack. It is the most widely used spy drone in the world.

• The ‘Sentinel’ drone. This is very stealthy and provided crucial intelligence in the raid to kill Bin Laden.

• The ‘Predator’ drone is a drone that has flown thousands of missions since 2001.

• The ‘Global Hawk’ is a drone that can stay aloft for up to 35 hours.

However, the United States is not the only country that has drones in its arsenal, Iran is another country that has them and has used them. Iran uses kamikaze drones, and it was these drones that Iran used in its first direct attack against Israel on 13th April 2024.

Iran typically uses the Shahed drone. The Shahed drone is a suicide drone that self-destruct when they reach their target. They are designed for one time precision strikes. They are cheap to produce, precise and hard to shoot down. These drones have hit commercial ships in the Red Sea and Iran is willing to share them with its allies. Iran shared the designs with Russia, allowing Russia to create their own version of the Shahed-136 and overwhelming Ukrainian defences.

These drones use commercial parts that are not sophisticated. They are powered by a regular 4 piston engine which makes the drone relatively slow moving, but Iran claims the drone can reach pre-programmed targets of up to 1,500 miles away. Shahed drones have a delta wing configuration and use a light frame to carry over 100 pounds of explosives. The drones fly at lower altitudes and are quite small, making them harder to detect. However, the drawback of these drones is that they are not good at not getting shot down. The drones are relatively slow and very loud, meaning they can be detected easily. Shahed drones are cheap to produce with a production cost of around $50,000. This means that the primary advantage of the Shahed 136’s low cost is Iran’s ability to keep producing and deploying them on mass without breaking the bank.

Tactics of drone use / How do drones carry out their work?

Drones can actually be used tactically and in certain configurations, depending on the mission. One tactic is using drones in a drone swarm. This uses large numbers of drones in land, sea or air, all linked with AI to overwhelm an opponent or carry out a mission. Swarms work best when some drones can be taken out without compromising the overall mission. Drone stacks is another tactic that has been used in battle. In his tactic, individually controlled drones are brought in to perform distinct and sequential functions like target identification from a distance and then confirmation at closer range. This information is then sent to a human operator who takes out the target. AI is used for collision avoidance, but the overall approach is slower and less sophisticated than a drone swarm as it requires about as many human operators as drones. Drone swarms and stacks are useful for reconnaissance as the more sensors there are, the more powerful they are.

Features of drones

The Predator drone is built for endurance, so it needs to be light and efficient. It weights approximately 2,000 pounds. It is propellor driven and cruises at only 84 miles per hour The drone’s 4-cylinder engine burns about 300 times less fuel than a fighter jet. The Predator drone hovers 5 miles up, often in uncontested airspace and it uses its long wings to maximise lift. The Predator has a satellite control system which allows operators the ability to communicate, control and keep a link with the drone and navigate it.

Drones often have a sensor ball which carries daylight and infrared cameras. The sensor ball also guides the Predator’s two Hellfire missiles by firing a laser to the ground for the missiles to track and travel to the target. Other sensors that a drone may have include standard optical and infrared cameras, synthetic aperture radar sensors to identify ships and other targets through clouds and electro optical sensors to see moving targets.

Drone operators work from small trailers on the ground and control the Predator by satellite meaning the drone can be flown from virtually anywhere in the world. The drone operator’s role is to support troops on the ground and go after threats while trying to minimise civilian casualties. Many drones have autopilots, and the Reaper drone can fly using its own autopilot and preset GPS locations, but operators still must always keep their hands on the controls. Drones can be useful in supporting troops on the ground as a single craft can find, follow and eliminate a target in real time which represents a revolution in warfare and the way that war is fought. The design of a drone is also thought out. Some drones have the engine and propellor at the rear. This is so they don’t interfere with the delicate sensors at the front of the aircraft. Additionally, the inverted tail is down deflected to protect the propellor when the UAV tilts back for take-off and landing.

Challenges

Drones do face challenges. The visual sensors on drones are limited. For example, a pilot can’t look around and see what is going on and the crew’s grasp of the situation can be limited. When operators zoom in, they can lose sight of key details on the ground. As a result, new sensors are being developed to help drone operators. Another challenge is that unmanned aerial aircraft remain vulnerable. Drones crash more often than manned aircraft and the Global Hawk costs $100 million but it is nearly 3 times more likely to crash than the U-2. Additionally, countries would not want their advanced drones and technology falling into enemy hands but there is a risk of cyber warfare and the risk of hacking into an automated system. Control of the drone can be lost if the link with the satellite is lost if the pilot banks the aircraft too far. There are concerns about drones because drones cannot anticipate everything and not much is known about their ability to respond to the unknown. For example, if you were involved in the ‘Miracle on the Hudson’, would you prefer a skilful pilot or automated machine?

Defending against drones

To successfully defend against drones, countries need sensors that can detect and track them and identify if they are a threat and they also need interceptors capable of taking them down.

Drones in a potential future conflict – why use drones?

If there was a war between China and the United States, it would likely be fought in the Pacific and drones would play a key role. So why use drones?

The Pacific Ocean is primarily an aerial and maritime theatre so air and sea drones would face fewer obstacles and less variables making autonomous navigation more feasible with current technologies. The sheer size of the Pacific theatre is larger than Iraq or Afghanistan, so countries need more manpower (or drone power) to cover a greater area. In its wars in the Middle East, the United States trucked about 80% of its intra-theatre supplies using civilian trucks moving cargo from secure ports and airports to the main logistics hubs. However, unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, a Pacific conflict would likely involve a peer adversary that would contest the US’s supply lines. In the last 3 decades of war, the American military relied on allied countries to land and store cargo in a handful of city-sized logistical hubs, close to the battlefield yet safe from enemy attacks. Logistical storage centres would be prime targets for long range missiles in a Pacific war. The United States would work to distribute its forces and logistical network over the whole theatre rather than concentrating them in a few spots and drones would be crucial to this. Autonomous drones would be able to sustain smaller units spread across a wider theatre while allowing more resilient and covert logistic operations, focusing on redundancy and expendability. Drones can also hover and loiter over an area. Drones would also be beneficial as force multipliers and logistic connectors.

Future of drones/examples in development

Drones are being developed that can act entirely autonomously, allowing drones to do some things more quickly and accurately than human pilots such as predict the shape and movement of an object. It is likely that drones may someday be involved in attacks alongside manned jets such as the Collaborative combat aircraft which is developing autonomous fighter drones using AI to support human fighters such as for gathering intelligence and delivering weapons. These drones would fly in partnership with manned aircraft or connect to commanders on the ground. Drones will likely become more autonomous and will likely conducting bombing runs before moving on to more complicated air to air operations. However, we are not likely to see fully autonomous drones that operate independently of humans in the next 5 years.

Drones are becoming an increasingly important part in the world of military aviation. From surveillance to drone strikes and fully autonomous drones they will play a large part in any military in the future.

Don’t forget to look out for our next blog where we look at the rise of drone technology with a focus on civilian and commercial drones.

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